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भारत के नए लोकपाल के न्यायिक सदस्य और दो लोकपाल सदस्य ने शपथ ली
Calculation DA from January 2018 based on All India Conumer Price Index for the months from January 2017 to October 2017 with estimated index for November and December 2017
After witnessing a static level of Consumer Price Index for the months from July 2017 to September 2017, we have two point increase in CPI (IW) for the month of October 2017.
DA from July 2017 – Govt has recently released All India Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) for the month of May 2017 (AICPI – IW)
Projected CPI for Nov and Dec 2017 | ||||
Actual | ModerateInflation | High
Inflation |
NegativeInflation | |
Month | CPI | CPI | CPI | CPI |
Jan-2017 | 274 | 274 | 274 | 274 |
Feb-2017 | 274 | 274 | 274 | 274 |
Mar-2017 | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 |
Apr-2017 | 277 | 277 | 277 | 277 |
May-2017 | 278 | 278 | 278 | 278 |
Jun-2017 | 280 | 280 | 280 | 280 |
Jul-2017 | 285 | 285 | 285 | 285 |
Aug-2017 | 285 | 285 | 285 | 285 |
Sep-2017 | 285 | 285 | 285 | 285 |
Oct-2017 | 287 | 287 | 287 | 287 |
Nov-2017 | — | 287 | 293 | 280 |
Dec-2017 | — | 287 | 295 | 276 |
DA from Jan 18 | 7% | 8% | 6% |
DA with effect from 1st January 2017 | = [ (274+274+275+277+278+280+285+285+285+287+287+287]-(261.4)X100/261.4 |
= 7 % |
As you could see from the table and calculation above, with the actual consumer price index from January 2017 to October 2017 and statically projected CPI for November 2017 and December 2017, DA from January 2018 for Central Government Employees is estimated to be 7%.
DA with effect from 1st January 2017 | = [ (274+274+275+277+278+280+285+285+285+287+293+295]-(261.4)X100/261.4 |
= 8 % |
Only if Consumer Price Index touches 293 and 295 in the months of November 2017 and December 2017 respectively, DA from January 2018 would increase to 8% .
So 3% increase in DA from January 2018 is possible only if very High Inflation in the price of essential commodities is noticed and consequent increase in CPI (IW) in the months of November and December 2017.
Since actual CPI for October 2017 is at 287, 5 point increase in CPI (IW) for the month of November 2017 and further 2 point increase in December 2017 is not expected.
DA with effect from 1st January 2017 | = [ (274+274+275+277+278+280+285+285+285+287+280+276]-(261.4)X100/261.4 |
= 6 % |
In the case of negative projection of CPI (IW) for November 2017 and December 2017, DA from January 2018 will be 6% i.e 1% increase in DA from January 2018, only if CPI decreased to 280 and 276 in November 2017 and December 2017 respectively. This scenario is also extremely unlikely conisdering the inflationary trend in prices.
Source – GConnect
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